I never imagined I would make such a statement until
recently when I was pondering the futility of market participants trying to
predict the next market downturn or pick the next big stock.
For me it brings to mind the movie The Princess Bride. One of my favorite scenes is the Battle of
Wits between the characters Wesley and Vizzini.
For anyone who has not seen the movie the Battle of Wits is structured
as follows: There are two wine glasses
on the table. One of which has been
poisoned by Wesley. Vizzini does not
know which glass has been poisoned and must deduce which glass is deadly. Once Vizzini
selects a glass they both must drink their wine and the loser will die. Part of Vizzini’s thought process is as
follows:
“Now,
a clever man would put the poison into his own goblet, because he would know
that only a great fool would reach for what he was given. I am not a great
fool, so I can clearly not choose the wine in front of you. But you must have
known I was not a great fool, you would have counted on it, so I can clearly
not choose the wine in front of me.”
