Investing Lessons from the 2014 Sugar Bowl

I have a client who is a big OU Sooner fan.  I mentioned to him my hope that OU would stand a chance against the heavily favored Alabama Crimson Tide to which he responded in jest, "I hope you aren't putting MY money on an upset." After the game I could not help but see the parallel to this year's outcome and how people actually think about investing for retirement.

I went to cash because..

"I went to cash because..."  Fill in the blank.  This is a common phrase uttered by market pundits, advisors, and amateur investors everywhere.  And there always is a seemingly very smart reason to justify putting your investments in cash instead of the market.  However; what appears on the surface to be a good investing idea often stands in sharp contrast to the actual results.

Biased Brains and Bubble Talk

If you are a human and an investor there is good news and bad news.  The bad news first.  Your brain sucks.  It operates in almost every way possible to encourage you to make bad investing decisions.  It is also why you care a lot more about the Fed’s actions than you really should.

A test will easily demonstrate your faulty brain at work.

It’s Déjà Vu All Over Again: 1994

The volatility in the stock market AND bond market over the past few days has everyone concerned.  Forget that the US market is still up over 10% for the year. We all tend to get very myopic in our vision when the stock market starts to waiver.  Especially when bonds, which are supposed to protect us in down markets, are also losing money.  It can make the thought of just selling everything and going to cash seem appealing.  But as history reveals, that can be a very costly mistake.

The 4% Safe Withdrawal Rate Misconception

There has been much discussion lately on the reliability of the suggested 4% withdrawal rate.  It has long been held that withdrawing 4% from your retirement assets per year was a “safe” withdrawal rate.  “Safe” means if the retiree starts taking 4% out of their portfolio when they retire and increase that amount by inflation each year then that income will last them the rest of their life.  4% became a rule-of-thumb even though it actually has strong academic backing.  Recently, however, online articles and general advisor talk have suggested that given the current low rate environment or due to big market collapses like 2008 and 2009 a 4% withdrawal rate is no longer feasible.